Singular Spectrum Analysis: Seasonal Volatility

Improved short-term point and interval forecasts of the daily maximum tropospheric ozone levels via singular spectrum analysis

We apply the ideas of singular value decomposition to time series to account for seasonal volatility. We propose a general method for producing reliable short-term point and interval forecasts of daily maximum tropospheric ozone concentrations, a time series with a significant seasonal component and correlated errors in both mean and volatility. Our method combines symmetrizing data transformation and time series modeling techniques called the singular spectrum analysis and autoregressive models.